This is not the standings, nor your typical power rankings. Just like a 12-pack, you feel great about the first one, and the idea of a Super Bowl gets fuzzier by number 12.
1. San Francisco 49ers
It might not be fair to have the Niners jumping an undefeated team on a bye week, but it’s impossible to not acknowledge what they are doing. Brock Purdy continues to look like a top MVP candidate, and Mike Evans has been such a difference maker for this team. Even in his older age, Evans has become a safety net for Purdy, especially in redzone situations. The defense continues to dictate the game, and now they have control over the division.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
Normally, an early bye week is viewed as a negative. The Chiefs are in a different situation. The injury bug has nabbed a few key guys early, so getting the early rest is a bonus to get some guys right before the marathon they have the rest of the year. Patrick Mahomes looks the best he has in years, Kenneth Walker is this year’s non-QB MVP candidate so far, and the defense is improving week after week. The NFL’s boogeyman looks like it’s back.
3. Baltimore Ravens
Jesse Minter’s defense has arrived. That side of the ball has been the biggest question mark for Baltimore since Mike Macdonald left for Seattle. They allowed 16 points to a unit that’s been putting up 40 per game over the last two weeks, and limited Bijan Robinson. He did have one big run that skewed his totals, but outside of that he was held to 48 yards on 16 carries. Baltimore may get a few key pieces back this week on the defensive side, and Lamar Jackson may return. If Sunday night was a sign that the defense has turned a corner, they could be set up to make a real run.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags escaped on Sunday morning, but a backup long snapper kept that game close. High snaps, one causing a missed extra point, forced Jacksonville to be more aggressive on fourth down which left points on the board. They’re still a great and balanced team, but the lack of an efficient run game may hold them back. They’re middle of the pack in both rushing yards and yards per attempt. At some point they are going to have to fix that to give Trevor Lawrence some help.
5. Buffalo Bills
After a two-game slump, Josh Allen took care of the ball again in a win. This team goes as Allen’s ball security goes. He takes care of the ball, he looks like an anomaly and they win. He turns the ball over, they lose because the rest of the roster didn’t give him enough help. Buffalo continues to be the most volatile team in the league. They just have to hope that the Josh Allen rollercoaster is climbing once the playoffs start.
6. Chicago Bears
The blowout may seem like the sky is falling in Chicago, but they walked into a hostile and desperate environment with a backup quarterback. I know I said last week that it doesn’t seem to matter who’s under center for the Bears to win, but this spot felt like it didn’t matter in a loss. Green Bay was desperate to keep their heads above water and they played like it. The Bears still have gone 2-1 with backups, and the three-week timeline for Caleb Williams is now up. This is not the spot to overreact to a loss.
7. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle gets the benefit of the doubt to fix their issues, but that’s going to have to happen soon. The run game is still broken and it’s putting a strain on Sam Darnold. Their only offense right now is Jaxson Smith-Njigba. It’s not a recipe to win games. The defense is doing what they can to hold up their end of the bargain, but the offense keeps giving extra possessions away. Kenneth Walker and Klint Kubiak may have been much more integral to this team than anyone gave them credit for.
8. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings defense might just be that good, and Kyler Murray finally had a game to hang his hat on. They don’t need an MVP candidate at quarterback, they just need anything that can produce points. If Murray and Kevin O’Connell can maintain a competent offense, the Vikings can be a real threat come January.
9. Los Angeles Rams
Offense isn’t a concern for the Rams. If Matthew Stafford is upright, they’ll put points on the board. The question right now is the defense, specifically the pass rush. They are desperate for Myles Garrett to return. They still can’t get meaningful pressure on the edges, and are totally reliant on Aaron Donald to be a game-wrecker up the middle to help the secondary. The pass rush takes too long and it results in scrambles or penalties in the secondary because they’re forced to cover for too long.
10. New England Patriots
Dare I say Drake Maye is back? It may be too early to tell, but it looks like that Bills game changed things. The mental block seems to be gone and he is back to looking like his MVP-level self. The defense continues to play well, and now they’re getting help from the offense. They’re more than alive to compete for not just a playoff spot, but the division as well.
11. Cincinnati Bengals
Cincy needed a get right game, but it’s still the abysmal Dolphins. The trio of Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins is as deadly as any in the league. However, a bottom-third rushing attack is a real problem. 31-year-old Samaje Perine cannot be the solution. Chase Brown and that o-line need to figure things out or else they’ll run the risk of being way too one dimensional.
12. Leave It In The Fridge
There isn’t a team that has earned the right to be alone in the 12-spot. The Cowboys performance on Thursday warrants a timeout. The Lions’ secondary can’t cover. Denver doesn’t really do anything that warrants confidence outside of Pat Surtain’s existence. The Eagles, Steelers and Browns are nearly unwatchable. The Raiders just got exposed. The Packers’ wins are in overtime against the Jets, the Bears with a backup quarterback, and surviving the Bucs with Jalon Daniels in his first NFL action. The NFC South is once again the most dysfunctional division. No amount of squinting and optimism can produce a twelfth team with any real hope right now.
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