Jags keep rolling in London; Rams momentum carries them against Bills
Jacksonville is still the most under-appreciated team in the league. If they were in New York or Chicago, they would probably lead every talk show. They’ll get to be on national TV this week finally, but at 9:30 Eastern time so most of the country will still miss it.
Regardless, they continue to be, arguably, the most balanced team in the NFL. Trevor Lawrence is playing flawless football, and the defense has been dominant. Travis Hunter has given them an extra boost on that side of the ball as one of only two corners forcing quarterbacks to a 0.0 passer rating when targeted.
Liam Cohen; I see you, and I applaud you.
The Rams got to fly cross-country once again as they head back home after a huge win in Philly. After all the traveling they’ve done, they finally got to have a happy flight. Monday night hosting the Bills is no easy task. Josh Allen has caught the turnover bug the past couple of weeks, but his career shows that can flip back his way at any moment.
There are some great matchups this week; teams that have huge bounce-back spots and others trying to avoid pressing the panic button. I started in Week 3, so if the record isn’t great by the end of the year, I’ll just blame that. A look at the record so far:
S/U: 18-12 (11-5 last week)
ATS: 11-17-2 (8-7-1 last week)
Buccaneers At Cowboys (-9.5)
Dallas looked like they found a real groove last week. Dak Prescott has been exceptional outside of Week 1, and CeeDee Lamb has been his favorite target. They’re still trying to figure out how to work George Pickens into the mix more, but this could be the perfect chance to do so. Still, the comeback last week and the state of the division feels like it’s time for liftoff for the Cowboys.
Cowboys 31, Buccaneers 17
Eagles At Jaguars (-7.5)
Philadelphia is spiraling and the city could be in shambles by 1:00. 7.5 is too many points though. As good as the Jags have been, the Eagles still have a top tier roster and thrive in these seemingly do or die spots. They need to find a solution for the loss of Lane Johnson, but we’ve seen backups step up big in their first appearances multiple times already this season. This just isn’t the week to get over the hump.
Jaguars 21, Eagles 18
Bears (-2.5) At Packers
History says that leaning on the home divisional underdog is a great place to be. I just can’t find anything I feel confident backing with this Green Bay team. The Bears, on the other hand, have Ben Johnson who looks invincible despite starting three different quarterbacks this year. The gameplan could be the same as last week; death by 1,000 cuts and devour the clock.
Bears 28, Packers 24
Texans (-7.5) At Titans
The panic button has already been pressed in Houston. Dropping to 0-5 after losing to the Titans warrants discussion that would otherwise be considered insanity. Sometimes teams just bottom out for a season before getting back into shape. That’s just the NFL experience. The Texans just need to avoid disaster.
Texans 21, Titans 13
Bengals (-6.5) At Dolphins
Cincinnati is on a pretty unnecessary two-game losing streak that brought Joe Burrow’s record when trailing in the final eight minutes to 1-35. Thankfully, they get the Dolphins this week, so there is absolutely no reason to be trailing at all. Lamar Jackson’s injury is keeping them alive in the division, they just need to put a full four quarters together again.
Bengals 30, Dolphins 20
Raiders At Patriots (-3.5)
The Raiders look the part. Kirk Cousins is dealing, Ashton Jeanty has arrived, and the defense is playing fast. As much as I think most fans would like to see them get back in the win column, Drake Maye and the Patriots got a massive win last week. Falling to 1-3 with a loss to the Bills would have felt like a death sentence. Instead, they’re 2-2, Maye looked much better, and they made timely plays late in that game to get some of their swagger back.
Patriots 24, Raiders 20
Vikings (-2.5) At Saints
The Vikings continue to dominate on defense, but the offense is borderline unwatchable. Getting the Saints sitting at 1-3 sounds like another break on the schedule, but New Orleans hasn’t started a season 0-3 at home since 1980. Technically, it’s 2021 but their “home opener” was played in Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida. The jury is probably still out on Tyler Shough, but there’s no denying he is more than willing to chuck the pill around the yard.
Saints 20, Vikings 17
Browns At Jets (-2.5)
Is Deshaun Watson back, or is it just a pseudo contract year making him lock in? Either way, he is giving the Browns what they need; respectable quarterback play to give a great roster a chance. Geno Smith has played some solid football on the other side, they just haven’t gotten the breaks they’ve needed. With Breece Hall’s status still up in the air, it’s hard to lean into the Jets.
Browns 17, Jets 14
Colts At Steelers (-2.5)
The Steelers may be old and not as quick on defense, but they can still be more physical. Run first teams without playmakers with elite speed are good matchups for them. Jonathan Taylor is great, but he does most of his damage up the middle where that strong Pittsburgh line will be waiting for him. As long as Aaron Rodgers takes care of the ball, they should be able to take care of business this week.
Steelers 24, Colts 18
Giants At Commanders (-3.5)
Jayden Daniels is expected to play this week after that gruesome elbow injury. I don’t think I’m alone in feeling like that might be wildly reckless and careless, but I’m not a doctor either. If he looks like 80% of himself this week, they should win solely because it’s hard to picture Jameis Winston winning three in a row. It feels like too many things could go wrong though.
Giants 27, Commanders 20
Broncos (-3.5) At Chargers
Another divisional favorite on the road. Similarly to the Packers, there is nothing to hang your hat on with the Chargers. Dissimilarly to the Bears, the Broncos offense looks choppy at best and they have their starter. As fun as it would be to follow local Denver news if they were to lose, it’s hard to imagine that happening. Yes, it is technically a road game, but that crowd will be predominantly Broncos fans.
Broncos 24, Chargers 14
Lions (-5.5) At Cardinals
The recipe is going to be the same for the Lions again. Can they get 30? They’re going to need it again this week. Jacoby Brissett has no regard for the future of his shoulder since suiting up for Arizona, and Michael Wilson has been a nice surprise. The Lions ended their streak of avoiding back-to-back losses last year, but have avoided losing again after a loss in a standalone game.
Lions 35, Cardinals 28
49ers At Seahawks (-3)
The first meeting between these two since Seattle embarrassed the Niners in the Divisional Round last year. Brock Purdy is playing out of his mind and has yet to be sacked. While I don’t see that continuing after this week, it’s hard not to have faith in this Niners team. They aren’t giving you one piece to eliminate on that offense, and they look like they’re holding grudges against the division.
49ers 24, Seahawks 22
Ravens At Falcons (-3)
Lamar Jackson will most likely not play this week. The Falcons are averaging 40 points per game since Michael Penix has taken over. No shame in Baltimore losing this game. However, Snoop Huntley has shown the ability to win games as the backup, and Derrick Henry is still there. The best way to hold the Falcons in check is to not give them the ball back. This should be Henry’s first heavy-usage game.
Ravens 24, Falcons 18
Bills At Rams (-3)
Josh Allen needs to wash the taste of that game-ending pick out of his mouth, but the Rams found a new life last week. Aaron Donald is most likely going to be back this week, and Puka Nacua got his ramp-up game out of the way. Even if Allen does rebound this week, the Rams might be too much for that defense to handle.
Rams 30, Bills 28
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