Bengals get a much-needed bounce-back win, and panic sets in for the Rams.
We’re about to be a month into the season, so some holes are going to be too much to climb out of and some records will be too good to ignore.
We will have four unbeaten teams remaining after this week, the AFC North might go from a four-way tie to only a three-way one, and we could have some preseason Super Bowl contenders in dire straights.
Will Josh Allen and the Bills rebound from a five turnover game? Can the Texans finally get in the win column? Are the Raiders legit? The NFL is the greatest show on television, and it’s giving us a drama-filled season so far.
Here are my Week 4 Picks, and a look at how last week went (though I don’t really want to):
S/U: 7-7
ATS: 3-10-1
Steelers (-2.5) At Browns
Cleveland dominates Thursday Night Football at home. 10-2 in this exact spot, and 4-0 against Pittsburgh on Thursdays. These teams are surprisingly both 2-1 right now, so something has to give. Both teams are coming off emotional wins and have loads of question marks surrounding their offenses. I’ll lean on history for this game.
Browns 20, Steelers 18
Colts (-3.5) At Commanders (London)
The Colts were able to outlast the Texans with Nico Collins last week. Daniel Jones has looked better and more comfortable each week off of his injury. The London games always have a level of randomness, but the Commanders are feeling themselves after handing the reigning champs their first loss of the season, leaving them suspect to a letdown game. Indy should be able to lean on Jonathan Taylor in this game.
Colts 28, Commanders 20
Patriots At Bills (-7)
Were the five turnovers a sign that the yearly Josh Allen slump arrived a little early, or was that just a nonchalant performance? If it is the slump, there is little reason to believe that the defense is going to bail him out again. Still, there is no evidence so far this season that New England wants to produce on offense, but maybe a big divisional matchup will ignite a fire.
Bills 24, Patriots 18
Titans At Ravens (-11.5)
Baltimore finally got over their fourth-quarter bugaboos. Now they just have to avoid the emotional letdown after the long flight home. Tennessee has been abysmal in all facets outside of Jeffery Simmons. That game-ending pick thrown by Cam Ward felt like the nail in the coffin on their season.
Ravens 30, Titans 10
Rams (-3) At Eagles
Both teams need wins after their Week 3 showings. The Rams gave away a lead, and Philly looked like they got stuck in traffic on 76 and never made their flight to Chicago. Historically speaking, the Eagles have had Sean McVay’s number. He is 1-6 versus Philly and has yet to win on the road against them. The lack of edge pressure from the Rams will be a factor in this game, and I expect the Eagles to come out of the gates hot for the safety of the city.
Eagles 24, Rams 21
Jaguars At Bengals (-2.5)
Jacksonville is an underdog after a dominant win to a Cincy team that looked as sloppy as any team last week? Obviously, this is a spot to hammer the Jags, right? It’s a trap! Jacksonville is not the same team on teh road as they are at home, and, just like Week 2, they’re getting an angry home team looking for blood after an ugly loss.
Bengals 28, Jaguars 21
Cowboys At Texans (-3)
Two teams with overwhelming hype entering the year that now have one combined win. Dallas has had three very different looking games so far, and the Texans have found a different way to come up short each week. However is the only team since 2000 to make the playoffs after starting 0-3, and they’ve done it twice. This is about when they decide to start their season.
Texans 21, Cowboys 18
Jets At Bears (-3.5)
Geno Smith has been quite the surprise this year. I’m not sure if Vegas is mad at him or happy they got the version they did, but his return to his Seattle form has given the Jets some hope. The Bears defense is susceptible to a productive offense, but they can also take advantage of turnovers. If Smith can take care of the ball, they can keep this game close, but the coaching mismatch will ultimately be too much.
Bears 28, Jets 24
Packers (-3.5) At Buccaneers
The Packers have been decimated by injury this year. The offensive line is hanging on by a thread, Micah Parsons is still recovering, and they now just lost Jayden Reed for the season. It’s not any better for Tampa with Baker Mayfield going down with a broken thumb. Wildly disappointing seasons for two fringe playoff contenders. But, shoutout Jalon Daniels for going from undrafted rookie, to second-string quarterback, and now getting his first career start.
Buccaneers 24, Packers 21
Cardinals (-2.5) At Giants
Brian Burns is done for the year, but if there is any team that can withstand that, it’s the Giants. Abdul Carter and Kayvon Thibodeaux have a chance to step up and establish themselves in the league.
Giants 20, Cardinals 17
Dolphins At Vikings (-10.5)
Brian Flores is playing Madden right now, and he’s getting away with it. Their whole defensive identity is “send everyone until somebody punishes us” and nobody has been able to. Unfortunately, Miami doesn’t look like that team and the Vikings should be able to survive another week.
Vikings 28, Dolphins 10
Chiefs (-4.5) At Raiders
The Raiders story is nice, but it’s better long-term. Klint Kubiak has shown that he was the right hire, but the roster is still a draft away from actually competing. On the other side, the Chiefs are back to dominance. We thought their reign of terror was over, but it was just on pause. Kenneth Walker has given Kansas City a new life, and they don’t look like they’re slowing down.
Chiefs 30, Raiders 24
Chargers At Seahawks (-7)
It’s time to admit that the Chargers are not good. They had five takeaways and couldn’t be competitive last week. As good of a coach as Jim Harbaugh is, he doesn’t have a second punch. If his toughness mentality isn’t working, it’s going to be a long season. The Seahawks are looking for a bounce-back game after losing to a backup quarterback, and it would be even sweeter if Mike Macdonald could get it while also burying his former teacher.
Seahawks 30, Chargers 13
Broncos At 49ers (-3)
Denver keeps doing what we say they can’t keep doing: spinning their tires for three quarters and winning games in the fourth. Week 1 showed the issue with that method though, as the gap was too big to claw back from against the Chiefs. The Niners may not be the Chiefs, but they look pretty darn close. Brock Purdy is playing the best football of his life, and Fred Warner looks like the best defensive player in the league. This isn’t a team to play around with.
49ers 24, Broncos 16
Lions (-3.5) At Panthers
Yes, the Panthers lost an ugly game to the Browns last week, but what has Detroit shown to be road favorites of more than a field goal against anybody? The secondary can’t stop anybody, and Bryce Young is still progressing.
Panthers 34, Lions 28
Falcons At Saints (-2.5)
One of these teams could hold the lead in the division Monday night. It makes sense for New Orleans, but Atlanta feels like they’re playing with house money. The extended rest could play into this game despite the Saints being mad about losing at home last week. This game is setting up to be the first real battle on MNF.
Falcons 24, Saints 22
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