Raiders keep rolling, Jacksonville bounces back.
The Raiders and Vikings find themselves among the elite teams in the league, while the Chargers, Texans and Bucs have their backs against the wall. Who would have thought?
Week 3 feels like a tipping point for the league. What’s real and what’s fool’s gold? Klint Kubiak has turned back the clock with Kirk Cousins, but can he make that last? Brian Flores is dominating on defense with a blitz rate over 80%, but how sustainable is that practice? The Texans’ defense has looked suspect, but is that just matchups?
A third week starts to answer those questions. The picture of the NFL landscape becomes much clearer as the dust settles almost a month into the season. However, bad weather across the Northeast could set up some strange, ugly games.
Chargers at Bills (-7)
The Chargers are a mess, and now they have to come cross-country for a 1:00 kickoff. The Bills look unbeatable, with Josh Allen looking like a runaway MVP favorite. With that being said, Jim Harbaugh has done exceptionally well in this exact spot. Add that to the team’s desperation, and this should be a much closer game than expected.
Pick: Bills 21, Chargers 18
Panthers (-2.5) at Browns
The Browns got into the win column and Deshaun Watson looked like a starting quarterback again last week. Unfortunately, they got a Tampa team that has the exact opposite vibes of this Carolina team. The Panthers have completely turned the tide. Bryce Young has developed into a franchise quarterback and has that offense humming with Dave Canales.
Pick: Panthers 31, Browns 13
Jets at Lions (-6.5)
Bring your oxygen tanks and running shoes because this game feels like it is going to be a track meet. The Lions’ secondary is in shambles, and the Jets have still not forced an interception in the Aaron Glenn Era. Detroit is going to be playing angry after getting embarrassed on national TV, but that secondary is going to leave the backdoor open for the Jets to cover.
Pick: Lions 38, Jets 32
Texans (-1.5) at Colts
The C.J. Stroud Era in Houston tells us that this is the week Houston turns it on. Three out of four years, they’ve started at least 0-2. This is by no means an easy bounce-back game, though. The Colts just went to overtime with the Chiefs, and Daniel Jones continues to look more comfortable with every snap off the Achilles injury. The historical trends on this game make it a very difficult pick (road divisional favorite vs. team off an overtime game). I just have to believe that Houston gets back on track starting this week.
Pick: Texans 24, Colts 21
Chiefs (-10) at Dolphins
The Chiefs are back. Patrick Mahomes has a running game for the first time in his career, Travis Kelce is a real threat again, and Steve Spagnuolo is still there to coach up that young defense. Mahomes is not a great covering quarterback as a favorite though, and, coming off an overtime game, this game will be closer than it “should” be.
Pick: Chiefs 28, Dolphins 20
Titans at Giants (-2.5)
Jameis Winston looked rough last week in relief after Jaxson Dart went down with a knee injury. A full week of reps with the ones should make him look better, right? The weather forecast doesn’t bode well for Winston to change his turnover fortunes, so this looks like it’s going to be a Cam Skattebo-led game. Jeffery Simmons leading that front for the Titans should throw a wrench in that plan.
Pick: Titans 14, Giants 10
Bengals (-3.5) at Steelers
For the last 18 years, this has been the exact spot to back the Steelers, but this isn’t a Mike Tomlin-led team anymore. The offense still looks anemic, and the defense is still old and matchup-dependent. The Bengals are faster on offense, and the defense looks totally revamped. Nonetheless, it is still a divisional matchup between two familiar teams.
Pick: Bengals 24, Steelers 21
Seahawks (-7.5) at Commanders
The Seahawks have been great with Mike Macdonald as head coach and even better on the road, going 16-2 since he took over. Washington will be without Jayden Daniels, while Seattle gets Sam Darnold back. With weather playing a factor in this game, the Seahawks roster will be too much for the Commanders to consistently move the ball.
Pick: Seahawks 24, Commanders 10
Patriots at Jaguars (-3)
Jacksonville is coming off of a tough loss to the Broncos where the offense went ice cold in the fourth quarter. Trevor Lawrence was getting to his nine-game maximum of consistent play, so he was due for a loss like that. The Jaguars return home to get a Patriots team whose offense has played ultra-conservatively since A.J. Brown’s ankle injury, and can’t quite get rid of the turnover bug.
Pick: Jaguars 24, Patriots 17
Cardinals at 49ers (-8.5)
Arizona and Jacoby Brissett came back down to Earth in week two, and the Niners have been dominant in their two wins. However, San Francisco will be rolling out an injury-riddled squad once again. They’ll be without Nick Bosa and Demarcus Robinson, and Mike Evans is questionable, but they should still have enough to get the job done Sunday afternoon.
Pick: 49ers 27, Cardinals 20
Vikings (-1.5) at Buccaneers
Brian Flores has put on a defensive clinic in the last six quarters, allowing only six points in that span. The Buccaneers have struggled on offense with turnovers to start the year, so this looks like a lopsided matchup. History tells us a different story, however. Desperate 0-2 teams cover at more than a 60% rate since 2010, so the Vikings could be vulnerable after two big divisional wins.
Pick: Buccaneers 21, Vikings 18
Ravens (-3) at Cowboys
Questions about the field conditions of the Brazil game are the main story of this game. The NFLPA issued a statement regarding the conditions and stated that improvements were being made. The international games always have a sense of randomness to them, and this game seems to be no different. If the field is in rough enough shape to make this a run-heavy game, than it’s safe to trust the Ravens and Derrick Henry in the matchup. Add in that Nnamdi Madibuike will make his return this week on the defensive line, it becomes easier to be on that side.
Pick: Ravens 30, Cowboys 20
Raiders at Saints (-3)
New Orleans is coming off a gritty comeback win against Baltimore and Tyler Shough has looked fantastic through two games. As a trendy playoff pick prior to the season, they have a lot of support. The Raiders have quietly been very good, though. Kirk Cousins has been efficient in their two wins, and the defense has been surprisingly productive. Kelvin Banks just went on IR for the Saints which will hurt them in blocking Maxx Crosby. It’s crazy to think that the Raiders are going to be 3-0, but we’re staring right down the barrel at it.
Pick: Raiders 24, Saints 20
Rams (-2.5) at Broncos
Two teams that looked out of sorts one week, and then had big bounce-back games the next. The Rams dominated the Giants without Puka Nacua, and Denver produced a familiar comeback win. Denver will be the more complete team from an injury perspective, but their struggles with tackling will be a problem against the Rams’ two-headed monster in the backfield. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum found their footing Monday night, making it look like Sean McVay has found a winning recipe on offense.
Pick: Rams 24, Broncos 17
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